Everyone knows that the Green Party takes from the Democratic base and the Libertarian Party takes from the Republican base. So the question is who is going to be more of a spoiler. Right now Nader polls at 6% and Barr at 3%, which are not shabby numbers for 3rd party candidated (not numbers that scream they are true candidates, but not shabby).
Can either of them jump up into real contention? Nader has a Latino running with him, who is very active and known in CA, that could eat into the Latino basis of the Democrats. Under the Bush administration aka the Republicans, everything has gone to sh1t: Oil, food, the economy, Iraq, Afghanistan, the dollar, the mortgage meltdown, tax and spending increases, rising healthcare costs and an inevitable recission. Like it or not this all came on the Republican ticket. However, fiscal conservatives (such as myself) still don't want to go to the liberal camps in Obama or Nader. Therefore the alternative is to go Libertarian. I have committed my vote to Bob Barr, I wonder how many others will also.
Can either be a true threat? I personally think that neither will receive more than 1% of the vote. I think Nader will get a little more because of name recognition, but not much. Its a shame though. It would be nice to have 4 parties. I think the Libertarians and Greens must start with State and Local elections, then move to Congress and State governors and then go for the big ticket.
While I would hope that Bob Barr would get the most votes of any third party candidate, the resentment within the Libertarian Party at the nomination of two libertarian-leaning Republicans is very real, and many of them are defecting to the Constitution Party in support of Chuck Baldwin.
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